Increasing California’s Postsecondary Attainment Rate to 70% for All Demographic Groups by 2035 Would Generate $4.4 Trillion in Net Monetary Gains for the State and Its Residents, Georgetown University Report Says
The monetary impact from increasing attainment would be large regardless of whether Californians earn four-year degrees or shorter-term credentials.
Washington, DC, April 28, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Increasing postsecondary attainment is critical to ensuring individuals are adequately prepared for the workforce of the future. California is a case in point. In 2022, state officials set a goal to increase the statewide postsecondary attainment rate to 70% by 2030 in order to meet projected demand for college-educated workers; roughly 56% of working-age Californians currently hold a postsecondary credential. While the state’s goal is ambitious, current attainment patterns reveal troubling disparities by race/ethnicity, economic background, age, and geography that put large segments of Californians at risk of being left behind. Given these inequalities, College Futures Foundation set a more aspirational goal of raising attainment rates to at least 70% for all groups of working-age adults in California, including underserved learners, by 2035.
The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW), with support from College Futures Foundation, determined how California and its residents would benefit from achieving this goal. In The Golden Ticket: How Raising Postsecondary Attainment Rates to 70 Percent for All Demographic Groups Would Unlock Decades of Prosperity in California, CEW finds that achieving the 70% attainment goal across all demographic groups would require historic levels of public investment but would result in $4.4 trillion in net monetary gains for the state and its residents over the next 50 years. This anticipated impact is greater than the size of the entire state economy today.
“Over the entire 50-year payback period we model—covering the full career arcs of all young adults who earn a credential over the next decade—the state and its residents would see $4.4 trillion in net monetary gains, equivalent to $214,000 per working-age adult. After just five years of significant investment, the average annual net gain over the next five years would total $65.5 billion for the state of California and its residents due to higher earnings, increased tax revenues, consumption-driven economic expansion, and savings from reduced public spending,” said Zack Mabel, lead author and director of research at CEW. “Importantly, although bachelor’s degrees would deliver the highest total monetary gains overall, attainment gains at all levels would be transformational.”
CEW researchers modeled potential monetary gains across all postsecondary credential levels. The most realistic scenario assumes Californians earn a mix of postsecondary credentials over the next decade, which would result in a monetary impact of $4.4 trillion. But in a scenario in which all new credential holders earned only non-degree credentials—such as certificates, certifications, and occupational licenses—or solely associate’s degrees, the anticipated impact would still be around $4 trillion. If, however, all demographic groups reached the 70% goal by earning a bachelor’s degree, the total impact to California and its residents would be $4.8 trillion.
While these potential monetary gains are massive, achieving them is aspirational. CEW projects that in 2035, six of 12 groups of working-age adults analyzed will fall short of the 70% goal. In particular, Hispanic/Latino men and women, the state’s largest racial/ethnic group, have the lowest current postsecondary attainment rates (31% and 39%, respectively). Reaching the attainment goal among Hispanic/Latino workers would account for about $4.2 trillion of the $4.4 trillion total projected impact. Increases in attainment among underrepresented AI/AN/NH/PI/Asian adults and Black/African American adults would account for the remaining impact. Attainment gains among low-income Californians would also contribute an outsize share of the total impact: only one-third of low-income working-age adults currently hold a postsecondary credential, and this group’s attainment rate is projected to increase to just 43% in 2035.
“Any path to reaching the 70% goal will require increasing credential attainment for a number of demographic groups in California, including Hispanic/Latino individuals, low-income Californians, and older adults already in the workforce. If every young adult in California earns a credential by 2035 and attainment rates for older adults remain unchanged, almost all underrepresented groups would still fall short. To achieve the 70% postsecondary attainment rate across all underrepresented groups, 11 times as many older adults than projected would need to earn credentials,” said co-author and CEW Director Jeff Strohl. “Some may doubt the cost-effectiveness of earning a credential later in life, but our analysis indicates that most newly credentialed older adults would see positive returns, even after accounting for their own costs from tuition and fees, forgone earnings, and student loans.”
California’s diverse geography also shapes attainment patterns. The Bay Area is currently the only region where 70% of working-age adults hold postsecondary credentials, but Orange County and the Southern Border are projected to reach this mark by 2035. In contrast, the Northern San Joaquin Valley, the Central San Joaquin Valley, and Kern County have strikingly low postsecondary attainment rates and are projected to lag behind. In regions like these, local economies predominantly depend on agriculture, construction, the service sector, and other more hands-on occupations, and it is unclear whether local job markets can absorb the rapid growth in the supply of college-educated workers if all demographic groups reach a 70% postsecondary attainment rate. To deter newly credentialed residents from leaving for jobs elsewhere and worsening existing regional disparities, the state must invest in economic development strategies to sustain a more skilled, credentialed workforce and ensure that every region benefits from increased attainment.
“This report makes clear that California’s economic future is tied to who has access to postsecondary education and skills training,” said Eloy Ortiz Oakley, president and CEO of College Futures Foundation. “A $4.4 trillion gain is within reach, but it will take deliberate investment and a commitment to expanding opportunity across all demographic groups.”
To view the full report, visit: https://cew.georgetown.edu/california-postsecondary-attainment.
The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) is a research and policy institute within Georgetown’s McCourt School of Public Policy that studies the links between education, career qualifications, and workforce demands. For more information, visit https://cew.georgetown.edu/. Follow CEW on X @GeorgetownCEW, Bluesky, Instagram, and LinkedIn.
CONTACT: Katherine Hazelrigg Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce [email protected]
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